The news of the establishment of a single bank regulator in the euro zone boosted confidence in the investment market, and commodities generally rebounded on July 3. Driven by optimism, Zheng Cotton may rebound next week, but the medium-term bearish trend is difficult to change. Strategically, be cautious and wait-and-see.

On July 3, the 1301 contract closed at 19205 yuan per ton, which was a 50 yuan increase or 0.26% over the settlement price yesterday; the 1209 contract was closed at 18485 yuan per ton, which was a 65 yuan increase or 0.35% over the settlement price yesterday.

The pattern of global cotton oversupply is difficult to change in the short term. According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture in June, the ending stocks of the next fiscal year will continue to increase and set a record high. It is forecasted that the global cotton production in 2012/13 will be 25.102 million tons, the global consumption will be 23.733 million tons, and the global ending inventory will be 16.622 million tons, an increase of 170,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 1.56 million tons compared with 2011/12, an increase of 10.6%. . The estimated annual global inventory consumption ratio is 68.35% in the next fiscal year, which is higher than the current year's 63.44%. According to the report, it is expected that China's annual production will reach 6.641 million tons, consumption will reach 8.709 million tons, imports will reach 2.939 million tons, and stocks will reach 6.815 million tons. Long-term suppression of cotton prices.

The current situation in the production of textile companies is severe, and companies are not very active in purchasing cotton. Downstream companies are more willing to import foreign cheap cotton yarn to meet production needs.

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