Although the report is still in the "academic stage", it will soon be transformed from scientific research results into practical policies through relevant procedures, and it will likely become the annual central government trade report in the future.

The "conclusion" of this report has shocked all countries in the world: in the next 10 or 20 years, China will become a global power status that is not "top" or "second". At the same time, the status of “the top and the bottom” of this global power will cause major changes in the economic and trade environment of the countries in the world.

The core of the report pointed out that by 2020, China's total trade volume, including trade in goods and services, will reach about 5.3 trillion US dollars, more than double the number in 2009.

According to this report, China will continue to expand imports in the future, including the expansion of high-tech and technology equipment imports, which is a major adjustment in China's excessive dependence on exports.

Another highlight of the report is the clear comments on China's foreign-related fiscal and taxation policies, foreign-related financial policies, and foreign exchange management and exchange rate policies.

Even if China has achieved "market economy status", it may be due to the WTO rules of the currency, which may make it difficult for China to reach the target in the next 30-50 years or even longer. Then the United States may use "exchange rate" and "money manipulation" anytime and anywhere. ", "free exchange of money" and so on to China.

On April 18th, at the “Canton Fair”, which is known as China’s front window and “two degrees per year”, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China announced a research report on China’s Foreign Trade Development Strategy in the Post-Crisis Era. For many years, the direction of China's economic and trade development in the next 10 years has been announced for the first time.

The report simply and clearly pointed out that China will promote the "multiplication" of both goods and services trade. In the next 10 or 20 years, China's unambiguous and ambitious strategic plan is the "top and second" power of global trade. Initially realize the transformation from a big trading country to a trading power. This is the first time that after the global financial tsunami, China has clearly defined the foreign trade “development strategy blueprint” in the post-crisis era. It is also the first time in more than 60 years since China’s WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures. Article 3 of the General Agreement on Trade has transparently published the “Future Trend Development Report” on the economy and trade of the world's former populous country.

1. Is China “front and second”?

According to relevant authoritative sources in China, this is a clear investigation task of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China in July 2009 at the China Communist Party's Communist Party meeting in China. This report covers all areas related to China's foreign trade. The relevant experts and officials who released the research report revealed at the previous briefing that although the report is still in the "academic stage", it will soon be transformed from scientific research results into actual policies through relevant procedures. It is likely to become the annual central government trade report.

The "conclusion" of this report has shocked all countries in the world: in the next 10 or 20 years, China will become a global power status that is not "top" or "second". At the same time, the status of “the top and the bottom” of this global power will cause major changes in the economic and trade environment of the countries in the world. If China can truly implement its status as a “top and second” global trade power, then China must expand its market space deeper, broader and more subversively into the international market in the fields of mineral resources and energy. It has formed a strong international market competition with the United States and the European Union. It has taken over the international market that was not originally China, and it has taken a larger margin. Otherwise, the "front and second" of this national macro strategy may be "painting cakes to fill the hunger." To make China's "development strategy" not "painting cakes to fill the hunger", it is necessary to gradually approach the market sites of the developed countries such as the United States and the European Union, step by step, seize the land, and then convert into China's "market area." In fact, this strategic goal is not only to challenge the hegemonic position of the US “pre-commercial empire”, but also to challenge the EU’s larger wealth position of the larger and more “high-income countries”.

Zhong Shan, deputy director of the Ministry of Commerce of China, who led the release of this report, pointed out at the press conference: "On the surface, the financial crisis is an impact on China's foreign trade, which is actually an impact on China's foreign trade development." It is precisely because of the conflict between the RMB exchange rate and the US government that the Chinese government has communicated with the US about whether it is a high-ranking Chinese official who is “exchange rate manipulation”. And "exchange rate manipulation" and "currency free exchange" will become a tough battle for China's "market economy status" for a long period of time in the future.

II. Data and Reality Although this report has not disclosed all the relevant contents to the world, it was learned from the report's chief executive and researcher Li Gang of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce that one of the highlights of the report was the first determination of a trade power. Specific indicators. The core of the report pointed out that by 2020, China's total trade volume, including trade in goods and services, will reach about 5.3 trillion US dollars, more than double the number in 2009. Among them, the total import and export of goods will reach about 4.3 trillion US dollars, the total import and export of service trade will reach about 1 trillion US dollars; the export value of goods trade will reach about 2.4 trillion US dollars, accounting for 10.1% of the world, ranking the world 1; the import volume will reach 1.9 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.2% of the world, ranking second in the world; service trade exports will reach about 0.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.1% of the world, ranking second in the world The import volume will reach about 0.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.7% of the world's total, ranking second in the world. That is to say, in the next 10 years, the rudiment of China's transition from a trading power to a trading power has emerged.

As is known to all, China’s foreign exchange reserves in 2009 was 239.192 billion U.S. dollars, and it has already become a "one brother" of all countries in the world. Now, China’s “foreign exchange reserves” have increased by about 400 billion U.S. dollars per year (this is still in the more severe year of the global financial tsunami). According to the report at the end of 2009, 10 years after the report, China’s foreign exchange reserves are very good. It may break through or exceed $5 trillion; 20 years later, China’s foreign exchange reserves will be at least $10 trillion. Even if China’s foreign exchange reserves actually reach or exceed 10 trillion US dollars in the next 20 years (more than three times at the end of 2009), according to the international unified “per capita gross national income”, China still cannot rank among the top 50 countries in the world. "Middle-class income countries" ranks.

This is a big dilemma for China in the post-crisis era and for a long time to come. On the one hand, China’s foreign exchange reserves will remain high, on the other hand, China and major trading countries (especially with “high-income countries”) The surplus is difficult to balance. This is due to the roots of the Chinese-style environment of “exporting foreign exchange and attracting foreign investment”. This China National Strategy Report proposes that China's foreign trade development should achieve a "transition from big to strong" in the next 20 years, that is, to consolidate the status of a trading power by 2020 and promote the process of trade power; in the second 10 years, it will reach 2030. Years ago "preliminarily achieved the goal of a strong trade country." In the next 10 to 20 years, the way in which "Made in China" moves to countries around the world can be integrated into "high-income countries" and so on, which is related to the success or failure of China's road.

3. Support and theoretical report that China will continue to reform its tariffs and other policies in the future. China will continue to adjust and improve its foreign trade policy in the future, including adjustments to tariff and non-tariff policies, trade policy policies, import policies, and trade in services policies. Whether it is with the ASEAN Free Trade Area, or the "free trade zone" negotiations between the dozens of bilateral countries that China is stepping up negotiations, or the ECFA "cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement", there is a huge space. In this field, the report clearly states: First, in the future, China should further reduce the overall level of import tariffs, and gradually reduce or eliminate import tariffs on resources, energy, and technical equipment. Second, adjust the tax rate structure to increase the effective protection of import tariffs. The third is to avoid and reduce the taxation of export products as much as possible. The protection of resources and the environment should be borne by domestic taxation policies. The fourth is to moderately reduce the consumption tax rate of imports. This is the basic national policy for China's future change.

Zhong Shan, deputy director of the Ministry of Commerce of China, who led the release of this report, pointed out at the press conference: "On the surface, the financial crisis is an impact on China's foreign trade, which is actually an impact on China's foreign trade development." It is precisely because of the conflict between the RMB exchange rate and the US government that the Chinese government has communicated with the US about whether it is a high-ranking Chinese official who is “exchange rate manipulation”. And "exchange rate manipulation" and "currency free exchange" will become a tough battle for China's "market economy status" for a long period of time in the future.

II. Data and Reality Although this report has not disclosed all the relevant contents to the world, it was learned from the report's chief executive and researcher Li Gang of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce that one of the highlights of the report was the first determination of a trade power. Specific indicators. The core of the report pointed out that by 2020, China's total trade volume, including trade in goods and services, will reach about 5.3 trillion US dollars, more than double the number in 2009. Among them, the total import and export of goods will reach about 4.3 trillion US dollars, the total import and export of service trade will reach about 1 trillion US dollars; the export value of goods trade will reach about 2.4 trillion US dollars, accounting for 10.1% of the world, ranking the world 1; the import volume will reach 1.9 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.2% of the world, ranking second in the world; service trade exports will reach about 0.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.1% of the world, ranking second in the world The import volume will reach about 0.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for 8.7% of the world's total, ranking second in the world. That is to say, in the next 10 years, the rudiment of China's transition from a trading power to a trading power has emerged.

As is known to all, China’s foreign exchange reserves in 2009 was 239.192 billion U.S. dollars, and it has already become a "one brother" of all countries in the world. Now, China’s “foreign exchange reserves” have increased by about 400 billion U.S. dollars per year (this is still in the more severe year of the global financial tsunami). According to the report at the end of 2009, 10 years after the report, China’s foreign exchange reserves are very good. It may break through or exceed $5 trillion; 20 years later, China’s foreign exchange reserves will be at least $10 trillion. Even if China’s foreign exchange reserves actually reach or exceed 10 trillion US dollars in the next 20 years (more than three times at the end of 2009), according to the international unified “per capita gross national income”, China still cannot rank among the top 50 countries in the world. "Middle-class income countries" ranks.

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